Adapting Sustainable Forest Management to Climate Change: Scenarios for Vulnerability Assessment

Summary

Maintaining sustainable forest management practices in Canada during the 21st century and beyond will be a major challenge, given the uncertainties of global socioeconomic development and multiple interacting consequences of global environmental change. Scenarios represent an important tool for decision makers to use in exploring the causes and effects of possible changes in future environmental conditions and the implications of those changes for forests and the social, environmental, and economic benefits that forests provide. Scenario analysis allows managers and other stakeholders to evaluate the consequences of plausible alternative futures for forest management and to develop robust adaptation strategies. This report addresses the origins of the scenarios that will be needed to assess the impacts of climate change and other stressors on managed forest systems. It examines how scenarios can be constructed for application at local scales (such as a forest management unit), using both topdown (downscaling from global and regional projections) and bottomup (accounting for local trends and projections) approaches. Practical examples of using scenarios for impact assessment in forestry are briefly reviewed in four case studies from across Canada.

Published Date: February 04, 2013
Publisher: Ontario Government, Ministry of Natural Resources
Author: Science and Information Resources Division

Details

Adapting Sustainable Forest Management to Climate Change: Scenarios for Vulnerability Assessment
ISBN: 978-1-100-20687-5   (PDF) 1.39 MB