Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration for Ontario Lakes Using Updated Ice-Date Models CCRR 40

Summary

A key finding of the report is that the magnitudes of the changes of inland lakes ice cover and open water duration increased during successive future periods with greater shifts in freeze-up date mainly in the south and in break-up dates in the north (see Table 4, Figure 5). Larger changes in break-up dates were more likely in the centre to northern areas of the province while changes in freeze-up dates were variable, possibly due to localized variations in snow cover downwind of large lakes. Under the A2 emissions scenario, which resembles current emissions trajectories, the median duration of open water for Ontario lakes will increase by 8 to 20, 12 to 27, and 17 to 37 days in the periods 2011 to 2040, 2041 to 2070, and 2071 to 2100, respectively, with much of the increase due to later freeze-up dates (Figure 6d-f). Under the B1 scenario, changes were projected to be about two-thirds as many days (see Figure 6a-c).

Published Date: April 30, 2014
Publisher: Ontario Government, Ministry of Natural Resources
Author: Science and Information Resources Division

Details

Regional Projections of Climate Change Effects on Ice Cover and Open-Water Duration for Ontario Lakes Using Updated Ice-Date Models CCRR 40
ISBN: 978-1-4606-3830-9   (PDF) 5.59 MB