Assessment of the vulnerability of forest vegetation of Ontario's Clay Belt (Ecodistrict 3E-1) to Climate Change - CCRR32

Summary

The vulnerability of the forest vegetation of Ontarios northern Clay Belt region to climate change was assessed using forest tree species composition and forest productivity as indicators. Changes in species composition were examined using the modelled bioclimatic niche of 15 tree species under current and future climate projected for three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) using four general circulation models and two emissions scenarios (A2, B1). Using climate projections from an ensemble model for these same scenarios and periods as inputs to climate-based site index and genecological models, changes in height growth were examined for several major tree species of the region as a measure of effects of climate on forest productivity. Major northward geographic shifts in species bioclimatic niche were projected, resulting in suitable climatic habitat decreasing for boreal forest species of the region, and becoming more favourable for species currently associated with more southern, i.e., Great Lakes-St. Lawrence, areas.

Published Date: November 09, 2012
Publisher: Ontario Government, Ministry of Natural Resources
Author: Science and Information Resources Division

Details

Assessment of the vulnerability of forest vegetation of Ontario's Clay Belt (Ecodistrict 3E-1) to Climate Change - CCRR32
ISBN: 978-1-4606-0497-7   (PDF) 1.25 MB